At the closing reception for the Web 2.0 conference (Thanks, Yahoo!) I introduced Chris Law, a founder of Tribe Networks, to Stewart Butterfield, who founded Flickr. As the three of us chatted, it became apparent that Stewart and Chris have very different views of where we are in the Web 2.0 hype cycle. So different that with some small incitement from me, they agreed to a $20 bet, to be paid at next year's conference. I'm the judge and this blog post is a virtual holding-of-stakes. Here's the bet:
Stewart: "This is likely the top of the hype, and even if it isn't, by next year it is going to feel so overdone that the name will have to change. This conference will still happen, but it will be called something other than Web 2.0 and look a lot more like an ETech."
Chris: "This is nothing like the top of the hype; this conference will not only happen next year, it will still be called Web 2.0 and will be bigger and crazier than this year."
To be paid: Next year's conference.
Proof point: Officially the name of next years' conference, but I think all three of us will know who won the bet no matter what it's called.